Week 13 2025: IDP Match-up Analysis
It's Week 13, and I'm here to provide the information and data to guide you to the best lineups in your IDP fantasy football league.
Week 13 and it’s a holiday week with Thanksgiving and Black Friday. I wanted to take the time to thank everyone for their support this year. I hope I’ve been able to help with your IDP lineup decision and learn a bit more about IDP.
Week 13 is a full slate of football with no bye weeks, but injuries don’t take the week off. With some of the injuries in Chicago and Carolina, we’ll have to monitor practice reports and be ready to pivot to alternate options.
Trends are now the norm, and the data is stabilized. As is the case with IDP, there’s variance.
Want my latest green dot report and full IDP projections? You can grab them over at The IDP Show.
As always, the goal here is simple: give you the context, insights, and matchup trends you need to set your lineups with confidence.
I won’t go too deep on cornerbacks in this one, but if you’re craving matchup-level analysis, check out The Cornerback Corner.
Alright, enough preamble. Let’s dive into the Week 13 matchups.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
A really good offensive line/defensive line battle this week. Micah Parsons typically lines up as the RDE, so he should avoid Penei Sewell for most of the game. Taylor Decker is no slouch though. Decker hasn’t allowed a sack since Week 1 and has allowed just 1 QB hit. Parsons is on a bit of a run with 2.5 sacks, with an 18.9% pressure rate and 33.3% win rate over the last two weeks. Even with a tougher matchup, Parsons has a quick get off and generates quick pressure.
You can bench Rashan Gary this week (which means he’s going off for 3 sacks). He’ll draw Penei on his matchup. Gary has just 6 pressures over the last two weeks with a 5% win rate. Sewell has allowed a 2.8% pressure rate this season.
Quay Walker has been listed as a limited participant this week, so there’s a chance he plays. The Lions have been a good matchup for opposing LBs this season, and are 4th in tackles allowed at 18.1/gm to the LB position. If Walker misses, McDuffie is an LB3 as a replacement. McDuffie wore the dot last week and recorded 11 tackles.
I’m still rolling out Edgerrin Cooper. He recorded 12 tackles (8 solos) in their first go around.
The Lions have been a decent matchup for safeties. They’re allowing just over 13 tackles/gm and are 14th in points allowed. Xavier McKinney has had a down year, but is still a DB2/3 in most formats.
Keisan Nixon is also a limited participant. He’s been a good source for tackles and PDs in CB-required leagues. He has 15 tackles and 3 defended passes over the last three weeks.
Jermaine Eluemunor had some choice for words for Aidan Hutchinson last week and how he had him bottled up. Hutch did end up getting home, but overall, Hutch did have a 14.3% pressure rate (when not on Eluemunor’s side). He’ll draw Zach Tom this week. Tom hasn’t allowed a sack and has given up 1 QB hit over pass block snaps. Over the last two weeks, Hutch has a 14.4% pressure rate and 30% win rate. Hutch vs. Tom is going to be an elite matchup.
The Packers are a good matchup for opposing LBs. So, obviously, start Jack Campbell as you normally would. He has a 16.9% tackle rate over the last two weeks, and a 16.3% tackle rate over the last four. He’s been stout in the run, and hasn’t missed a tackle in his run fits. He’s been the LB8 in overall scoring over the last four weeks.
Brian Branch has a 10.3% tackle rate over the last five games. Green Bay has been stingy to opposing safeties, allowing just 11.2 tackles/gm. Branch is the only safety I trust from Detroit for tackle production.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys
Tyler Guyton should be George Karlaftis’s primary matchup. Guyton has been better over the last few weeks, as he’s given up just two sacks. He is susceptible to pressure and is allowing a 7.4% pressure rate this season. Over his last four games, Karlaftis has a 28.9% win rate and 18.1% pressure rate. Karlaftis has a 0.88 pass rush get off and 5.4% quick pressure rate, so I think he’s going to be a lot for Guyton to handle.
Chris Jones looked liked the Chris Jones of old last week. He was disruptive and had 2 QB hits. He has a 14.9% pressure rate over the last two weeks and has a decent matchup over Cooper Beebe. Beebe has allowed 7 QBPs over 225 pass block snaps.
Over the last three games, the Cowboys are allowing 18 tackles/gm to the LB position. Nick Bolton has a 15.6% tackle rate over the last three weeks; resulting in 28 tackles.
Drue Tranquill has been on the field for at least 85% of the snaps in four straight games, but tackle production has been shaky with 2 games of 6+ tackles and 2 games of 3 tackles. He’s an LB3/4 in deeper leagues in a decent matchup. With no bye weeks, you don’t need to force him.
Chamarri Conner is coming off a 2 tackle game in Week 12. There was no real change to his role, as he had a 57% box rate. Dallas is allowing just over 12 tackles/gm to the safety position, so I’m still dialing him up.
Trent McDuffie is a great start, but I also like Jaylen Watson. The Cowboys are allowing the most tackles to the CB position this season at 15.5/gm. Watson has four straight games of 3+ tackles.
Quinnen Williams’s matchup might get an upgrade with Trey Smith out. Williams should line up over Mike Caliendo. Caliendo is a decent run blocker, but hasn’t been good in pass blocking. Caliendo has allowed an 8.6% pressure rate. In two games with Dallas, Williams has generated a 23.4% pressure rate resulting in 1.5 sacks and 4 QB hits.
Donovan Ezeiruaku has gone through a cold stretch over the last two weeks with just 1 QBP, but he does have 8 tackles and 2 TFLs. He is moving around the line, so he won’t spend all of his time on Josh Simmons, so he should draw Jawaan Taylor. Taylor has allowed sacks in three of his last four games. Ezeiruaku is in the streamer conversation.
No need to force any of the Dallas Cowboys linebackers into your lineups this week. The usage rate isn’t great for IDP and is uglier than a broccoli casserole.
@ReinhardNFL on Twitter statbutler.com The Chiefs are solid matchup for opposing safeties, allowing over 16 tackles/gm to the safety position over the last three weeks. I don’t mind Donovan Wilson as a DB3 streamer.
The Chiefs are a tougher matchup for CBs. I think you can find better streamer options in other matchups.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Has Myles Murphy figured things out? He’s produced a 13% pressure rate and 18.6% win rate over the last three games. They don’t sound like eye popping numbers, but he’s looked good. He’s using his hands well and displaying good footwork. Murphy will draw Roger Rosengarten has his matchup. Rosengarten has been a solid RT, but Lamar Jackson has been responsible for most of his sacks (14).
The Bengals have two of the worst graded off-ball LBs with Demetrius Knight (36.3) and Barrett Carter (34.8). I think they’re going to get a steady dose of Derrick Henry. Carter had 11 missed tackles in his previous five games before Week 12. Henry is a master at forcing misses, but Carter could have double-digits. Carter has 10+ tackles in four of his last six games.
Jordan Battle has been consistent IDP producer, however, he has just 10 tackles over the last two weeks. The Ravens are middle of the road in tackles allowed to opposing safeties at 12/gm (13/gm over the last three weeks).
He’s not going to wow you with tackles, but Dre’Mont Jones will generate pressure. Since joining the Ravens, he’s produced a 13.8% pressure rate with 1.5 sacks and 3 QB hits. Jones should matchup over Orlando Brown, who’s allowed 2 sacks and 2 QB hits over the last three weeks (7 total). Brown is allowing a 7% pressure rate.
Mike Green has 2.5 sacks over his last five games and has picked up his pressure rate over the last three weeks. (11.4%). He should spend time on both sides, so he’ll see Brown and Armarius Mims. Mims has allowed 4 sacks and 4 QB hits with a 58.8 pass block grade. Green looked really good vs Armand Membou. He had him off balance with good hand usage/swipes, and his bend was on display.
I’m starting Roquan Smith, but a bit hesitant on Teddye Buchanan. Since Week 8, he’s had one game with over a 75% usage rate, but has a 14.9% tackle rate with 31 tackles. He’s an LB4/5 in deeper leagues where you’re starting 4+ LBs.
It looks like Kyle Hamilton is practicing, which is huge for the Ravens and his IDP owners.
Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Lane Johnson looks to be out, so I think Montez Sweat should be in your lineup as a DL2. Jalen Hurts has been responsible for 8 of his own sacks and Fred Johnson has allowed 6 QBPs over the last three weeks. Sweat has sacks in five of his last six games and 8 TFLs.
If Gervon Dexter can get lined up on Landon Dickerson, there’s sack upside. Dexter has 7 tackles and a half-sack over the last two weeks. Dickerson has been responsible for 5 sacks and 22 QBPs, resulting in a 7.3% pressure rate allowed.
The Bears’ off-ball LBs are a mess. Tremaine Edmunds is on IR, and TJ Edwards and Noah Sewell are questionable at best. D’Marco Jackson is the only Bears LB I would trust if Sewell and Edwards are out. Jackson wore the dot in Week 12.
Jaqaun Brisker and Kevin Byard are DB3s with the issues at LB. They combined for 13 tackles in Week 12 and have a favorable matchup with the Eagles. The Eagles are allowing nearly 14 tackles/gm to opposing safeties.
Hard to sit Nahshon Wright in CB-required leagues. He has 14 tackles, 3 INTs, and 6 defended passes over the last four weeks.
The Bears’ offensive line has been solid, with most of them grading within the top-15 at their position. Jaelan Phillips will draw Darnell Wright. Wright has been solid and hasn’t allowed a sack since Week 2 and has allowed just 11 QBPs all season. If Phillips does get past Wright, Caleb Williams has been responsible for 9 of his own sacks. Since joining the Eagles, Phillips has generated a 17.4% pressure rate with 4 QB hits and a sack. He’s been solid in the run, and a good source for tackles (11). He was shut out in Week 12.
Although he didn’t have a sack, Nolan Smith generated a 23.5% pressure rate in Week 12. Ozzy Trapilo looks to get the start at LT this week. Trapilo has a 64.7 pass block grade and has four games with a 70+ grade. Smith has a tougher matchup this week.
The Bears are allowing 17 tackles/gm to the LB position. Zack Baun is a weekly starter and you can start Nakobe Dean. Dean had a full-time role in Week 12 with an 84% usage rate in Vic Fangio’s nickel. Dean has sack upside, as he sacks in three straight over 15 pass rush snaps.
Reed Blankenship has 7+ tackles in two of the last three weeks and the Bears are allowing nearly 15 tackles/gm over the last three weeks.