Week 15 2025: IDP Match-up Analysis
It's Week 15, and I'm here to provide the information and data to guide you to the best lineups in your IDP fantasy football league.
It’s Week 15, but more important, it’s the first week of the fantasy playoffs, and we have a full slate of games, so I’m going to focus on the more relevant IDPs and their matchups and maybe a few sneaky starts.
Want my latest green dot report and full IDP projections? You can grab them over at The IDP Show.
As always, the goal here is simple: give you the context, insights, and matchup trends you need to set your lineups with confidence.
I won’t go too deep on cornerbacks in this one, but if you’re craving matchup-level analysis, check out The Cornerback Corner.
Alright, enough preamble. Let’s dive into the Week 15 matchups.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jalon Walker is hoping Tristan Wirfs doesn’t suit up, but that doens’t appear to be the case. He has a chance to play. Walker has sacks in three of his last five games, but has just 4 total QBPs over the last three weeks. Wirfs is a tough matchup for anyone, but for a rookie, he’s going to have his hands full.
James Pearce looks to draw Luke Goedeke. Goedeke hasn’t allowed a sack over 253 pass block snaps, and Pearce enters this week with sacks in five straight. Can he make it six? Pearce has a 14.1% pressure rate and 21.1% win rate over the last three weeks and 3+ QBPs in five of his last six.
Can we trust Kaden Elliss and Divine Deablo in a playoff matchup? Elliss has 8+ tackles in two of his last three, but hasn’t hit double-digits since Week 8. Deablo has come back from injury with a full-time role and has 22 tackles over his last three games since returning. Tampa is an average matchup for LBs, as they’re allowing just under 16 tackles/gm to the position. Demario Davis recorded just 7 tackles in Week 14. You might be wise to sit them this week for better options.
Now, Xavier Watts and Jessie Bates have decent matchups this week, facing a Tampa offense yielding just over 14 tackles/gm to safeties.I consider them DB3/4 this week.
I don’t mind AJ Terrell or Mike Hughes as streamers. Over the last five weeks, the Bucs are allowing the 5th most points to the CB position.
Yaya Diaby doesn’t have much of a tackle floor recently, but obviously, you love his pass rush upside. Up until last week, he had 8 games 2+ QBPs. On the year, he does have a 19.8% win rate and 11.9% pressure rate. Diaby should draw Jake Matthews as his matchup. Matthews has allowed an 8.1% pressure rate over the last three weeks, resulting in a sack and 4 QB hits.
SirVcea Dennis is out, as he suffered what looked like a non-contact injury last week. if you’re daring, Deion Jones was the next man up, but there could be a rotation with Jones, John Bullock, and Nick Jackson. I’m hoping Jackson get some snaps and shows out. I really liked what I saw in the preseason. Jones might have some IDP appeal in deeper leagues, as the Bucs are a nickel/2-LB defense.
It’s hard to sit Lavonte David in any matchup, but his production has slipped since Week 8. He has just two games of 8+ tackles over his last five. It’s tough to bench the future HOF’er, but I’m probably expecting more LB2/3 type numbers.
Keep an eye on Tykee Smith. He suffered a shoulder injury, but did return. He’s been listed as a DNP and is listed as doubtful, so it’s bad timing if the DB1 misses Week 1 of the fantasy playoffs.
Antoine Winfield is in the DB1 conversation with Tykee doubtful. He has been the DB19 in overall scoring over the last four weeks and has four straight games of 5+ tackles, recording an INT and 2 defended passes over the last two weeks. There’s upside here with some of Smith’s tackle share opening up. Falcons are allowing just over 14 tackles/gm to the safety position and the Falcons are 7th in points allowed to the safety position over the last five weeks, so it’s a good spot.