Week 3 2025: IDP Match-up Analysis
It's Week 3, and I'm here to provide the information and data to guide you to the best lineups in your IDP league.
Week 2 is wrapped up, and just like always, it’s a good reminder not to chase every early-season trend. You can continue to find my green dots and projections over at The IDP Show.
My goal here with this article is simple. I want to give you the context, nuggets, and trends you need to make confident lineup calls.
Quick note: I’m not going too deep on cornerbacks here, but if you’re looking for matchup-level analysis, The Cornerback Corner has you covered.
Alright, let’s get into the Week 3 matchups.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
This seems like a good “get right” game for Gregory Rousseau. Larry Borom hasn’t been good at RT so far with a 58.9 pass block grade and Tanner Conner isn’t a good pass blocking TE either. This seems like a good game for Rousseau to generate pressure and get a sack in as many games.
Patrick Paul has seen improvement in his second season and he will be Joey Bosa’s matchup. Paul has a 75.5 pass block grade and 3 QBPs allowed in 81 PB snaps. Bosa dominated the Jets’ o-line last week with a 46.7% pressure rate, but produced just 2 hurries against Baltimore. He does move around the line, so if he can get on Borom, that would definitely help.
Matt Milano appears to be out for this game, so Dorian Williams should get the start opposite Terrel Bernard. Williams led the Bills in tackles last season, so he’s productive when he’s on the field. Now, through two games, the Dolphins have been a bad matchup for opposing LBs. They have yet to allow an LB to record more than 5 tackles.
Maybe it’s Cole Bishop season after all. Although he’s playing 28% of his snaps in the box, he’s productive around the field and making tackles. Bishop is 3rd on the team in tackles (9) and is coming off a game with a sack and TFL. Miami’s line yielded a sack to Nick Cross in Week 1, and Bishop looks to be used in the pass rush a bit more. He’s been in on 5 pass rush snaps through two weeks after seeing just 8 pass rush snaps all of 2024.
Chop Robinson is in a good spot opposite Spencer Brown. Brown is a better run blocker than pass blocker, as Brown has allowed 6 total QBPs and has a 54.2 pass block grade. Robinson has gotten off to a slow start this season, but here’s hoping he can take advantage of Brown.
Bradley Chubb looks to draw Dion Dawkins, as Chubb is their primary RDE. Dawkins has a 79.3 pass block grade and has been responsible for a sack and 4 total QBPs over 93 pass block snaps.
Jordyn Brooks and Tyrel Dodson are weekly starters. Through two weeks, the Bills have allowed 18 tackles/gm to the LB position.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
Leonard Floyd was on for 21 snaps against Minnesota and generated a 29.4% pressure rate. The Vikings only managed 47 offensive plays. Jalon Walker and James Pearce are starting to eat into Floyd’s and Arnold Ebiketie’s snaps. Pearce had 17 snaps, but Walker was on for 22. Ikem Ekwonu was given a 51.8 pass block grade, and Pearce and Ebiketie should line up on his side of the field.
Kaden Elliss and Divine Deablo should bounce back this week. Carolina has averaged just over 61 snaps per game.
The Panthers’ rookie safeties have looked solid on the field. Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman produced INTs against the Vikings. They look to be ball hawks in that secondary.
Jessie Bates saw a sharp decreased in box snaps from Week 1 to Week 2 (nearly 47%). The tackle production followed, with just 3 tackles. The Panthers are looking like a decent matchup for safeties, allowing nearly 19 tackles/gm.
Nic Scourton saw 22 snaps in Week 2, but has a good matchup this week over Elijah Wilkinson. Wilkinson has earned a 53.9 pass block grade and has allowed 9 total QB pressures over two weeks.
Update 9/20/2025: Looked into DJ Wonnum’s matchup a bit more and Jake Matthews has been average at best in pass pro. He has 71 pass block grade, but he’s been responsible for a sack and 2 QB hits so far this season. Wonnum has generated a 14.6% pressure rate so far this season. Michael Penix doens’t hold the ball too long to allow himself to get pressured, but Wonnum is an EDGE/DL3 this week.
Start Christian Rozeboom in a decent matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta is yielding 17 tackles/gm to the LB position. I think you can bench/drop Trevin Wallace in shallow leagues. He’s playing mostly early downs and only played 40% of the 3rd downs.
Tre’von Moehrig is leading the Panthers in tackles thanks to his 49% box rate. Continue to start him as a DB1, as he’s a top-12 DB with his box rate and tackle production.